CONFIABILIDAD SÍSMICA DE PLATAFORMAS MARINAS CON DAÑO POR FATIGA PARA LA ELABORACIÓN DE PLANES DE INSPECCIÓN BASADOS EN RIESGO
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18867/ris.77.93Resumen
En este trabajo se propone un método para estimar la probabilidad de falla global de plataformas marinas con daño acumulado por fatiga sometidas a cargas sísmicas. Se discute la variación de la confiabilidad estructural de una plataforma marina con el tiempo y se presenta el modelo para la evaluación de la confiabilidad de las juntas sometidas a daño acumulado por fatiga. Se propone una función de estado límite expresada en términos del cortante basal resistente del jacket y el actuante debido a excitaciones sísmicas. La probabilidad anual de falla de la plataforma, condicional a un estado de daño por fatiga en las juntas, se estima mediante simulación de Monte Carlo. Se utiliza un modelo de riesgo, expresado en términos de costos esperados de inspección, reparación y falla, para la selección de planes óptimos de inspección estructural. Se ilustra su aplicación en el diseño de planes de inspección para extender la vida de servicio de plataformas marinas.
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